6
Chop Val
9yo Gelding · 9-9
Vichy · Prix Rene & Jacques Bedel Handicap · 7f 209y
#2
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Vichy | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Marseille | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Marseille-borely | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Marseille-borely | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Marseille | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength86%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/01/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 54% | -0.09 |
| 10/02/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 25% | -0.17 |
| 24/02/2026 | 13th | 28/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 22/03/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 03/04/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 18/05/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 20/06/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 91% | +0.65 |