9
Fireman
4yo Gelding · 9-6
Vichy · Prix Rene & Jacques Bedel Handicap · 7f 209y
#3
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Nantes | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Nantes | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Nantes | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Compiegne | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-14 | Nantes | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 46% | +0.20 |
| 14/12/2025 | 12th | 17/2 | 55% | 21% | -0.34 |
| 26/12/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 14/04/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 83% | +0.78 |
| 11/05/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 29/05/2026 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 16/06/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |