4
Kenzal
8yo Gelding · 9-9
Vichy · Prix Rene & Jacques Bedel Handicap · 7f 209y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Vichy | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Marseille | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Vichy | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Marseille-borely | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-09 | Marseille | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength61%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/01/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 58% | -0.05 |
| 26/01/2026 | 12th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |
| 11/02/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 21/02/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 85% | +0.29 |
| 09/03/2026 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 85% | +0.48 |
| 13/05/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 20/06/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 42% | +0.26 |
| 25/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |