11
Morus
4yo Gelding · 9-3
Vichy · Prix Rene & Jacques Bedel Handicap · 7f 209y
#11
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Vichy | 4 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Compiegne | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Fontainebleau | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-03-16 | Chantilly | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 13
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength47%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 22/01/2026 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 53% | -0.31 |
| 14/02/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 16/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 11/04/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 54% | -0.09 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 73% | +0.20 |
| 20/07/2026 | 13th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |