Cayenne Kiss
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 77
Woodbine · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-09-14 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-08-24 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 24/08/2025 | 7th | 11/8 | 93% | 14% | -0.78 |
| 14/09/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 19/10/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |