2
Alnessa
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 43
Woodbine · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength70%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 7.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength91%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 23/07/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |