3
Flightmare
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 51
Woodbine · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
33%
Place Prob
26%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-12 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Woodbine | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength62%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/2025 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 12/12/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 11/06/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |