8
Race Day Chance
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 47
Woodbine · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-10-31 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2024-10-17 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength25%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/2024 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 20/09/2024 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 17/10/2024 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 31/10/2024 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 15/11/2025 | 5th | 100/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 29/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/07/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |