Hard To Capture
7yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 83
Woodbine · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-11-20 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 13/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 04/10/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 26/10/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 20/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |