Rock Hard Rose
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 81
Woodbine · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
85%
Place Prob
52%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-02-22 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 13/12/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 22/01/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 22/02/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 15/03/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 26/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |