2

Blameless Ghost

5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 82

Woodbine · Race 4 - Claiming · 7f 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength38%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Woodbine 06/07/2024 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 76 · 7f Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/07/2024 · OR 76 par6/07C7OR 76C7 @ Woodbine 24/08/2024 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 82 · 6f110y Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/08/2024 · OR 82 parC7 @ Woodbine 12/09/2024 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 84 · 7f110y Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/09/2024 · OR 84 par12/09C7OR 84C7 @ Woodbine 04/10/2024 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 86 · 1m110y Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/10/2024 · OR 86 parC7 @ Woodbine 02/11/2024 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 84 · 6f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/11/2024 · OR 84 par2/11C7OR 84C7 @ Woodbine 29/11/2024 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 85 · 6f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/11/2024 · OR 85 parC7 @ Woodbine 05/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 80 · 6f110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/07/2025 · OR 80 par5/07C7OR 80C6 @ Woodbine 26/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 79 · 6f110y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/07/2025 · OR 79 parC7 @ Woodbine 28/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 82 · 7f110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/09/2025 · OR 82 par28/09C7OR 82projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-09-28Woodbine?6th5th+1
2025-07-26Woodbine?8th6th+2
2025-07-05Woodbine?4th3rd+1
2024-11-29Woodbine?8th7th+1
2024-11-02Woodbine?6th5th+1
2024-10-04Woodbine?3rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/074/105/0728/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 8
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength33%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/07/20241st9/488%100%+0.12
24/08/20244th13/266%57%-0.09
12/09/20242nd14/126%86%+0.59
04/10/20243rd7/163%71%+0.08
02/11/20246th12/137%29%-0.08
29/11/20248th13/266%0%-0.66
05/07/20254th9/153%57%+0.05
26/07/20258th20/10%13%+0.13
28/09/20256th10/382%0%-0.82