7
Lady On The Nile
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 56
Woodbine · Race 4 - Claiming · 7f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-11-15 | Woodbine | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength58%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 17/10/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 15/11/2025 | 11th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |
| 12/12/2025 | 9th | 5/2 | 87% | 11% | -0.76 |
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 15/05/2026 | 8th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |