Moonlight Promises
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 82
Woodbine · Race 4 - Claiming · 7f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/10
Win Prob
53%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2025-11-22 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-11-01 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-10-25 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2024 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 31/08/2024 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 56% | -0.15 |
| 27/09/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 88% | +0.30 |
| 01/11/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 22/11/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 44% | -0.38 |
| 20/02/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 11% | -0.47 |
| 20/03/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 14% | -0.59 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |