Texas Holiday
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 72
Woodbine · Race 4 - Claiming · 7f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-06-18 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-08 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-10-16 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 02/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 88% | -0.05 |
| 14/09/2025 | 9th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |
| 05/10/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 16/10/2025 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 14% | -0.73 |
| 08/04/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 40% | -0.53 |
| 05/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |