1
Serious Green
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 67
Woodbine · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-30 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength76%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 10th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 11/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 25/09/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 69% | -0.04 |
| 30/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 12/12/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 22/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 09/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 19/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |