New Renaissance

4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 68

Woodbine · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 7f

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength70%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.5

Today:

Class gap: +2.0

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-04	Woodbine	?	8th	6th	+2	4.4
2025-06-14	Woodbine	?	5th	3rd	+2	7.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 6

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
14/06/2025	5th	9/2	76%	56%	-0.21
04/07/2026	8th	15/2	61%	0%	-0.61