Toast The Ghost
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 70
Woodbine · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-09-11 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-07-26 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-07-06 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-06-15 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 06/07/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 26/07/2025 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 11/09/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 18/07/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |