Lita Marie

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 68

Woodbine · Race 7 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 7f 110y

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

10%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength14%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.2

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-26	Woodbine	?	9th	8th	+1	1.6
2026-07-05	Woodbine	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2025-07-26	Woodbine	?	8th	7th	+1	2.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 8

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
26/07/2025	8th	40/1	0%	30%	+0.30
05/07/2026	2nd	15/2	61%	83%	+0.23
26/07/2026	9th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16