2
Nayons Peur Derien
3yo Filly · 10-4
Argentan · Prix Cadoudal Stakes · 1m 4f 94y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
31%
Place Prob
40%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength25%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.2
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Craon | ? | 4th | -1th | +4 |
| 2026-08-09 | Le Lion D'angers | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Le Lion D'angers | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 7-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength4%
Delivery trend -44.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 06/09/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |