15:35 · Southwell

Old Stag 70th Birthday Handicap Hurdle

1m 7f 182yGoing TBCClass 43YO plusTURFHandicap9 runners
Ordered by projected finish
3
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 120
15/8
Duke Of Luckley silks

Martin Keighley Racing Partnership 25

9yo Gelding · 11-13

Mahler - Emily's Princess (Flemensfirth)

Freddie Keighley60%3/5M Keighley60%
P13V11
9.0Going 10.0
Visor

Front runner. Showed a likeable attitude when making it 3 wins from 4 starts in small-field chases this year at Kelso last time. Reverts to hurdling for first time in over 4 years, however, still merits respect off a 5 lb lower hurdle mark.

Class Advantage

29/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below29/06 · mark par29/0620/07 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below20/07 · mark par2/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above2/06 · mark par3/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below3/07 · mark par25/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above25/08 · mark par16/09 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above16/09 · mark par16/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength51%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 7f 182y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 6 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 17%29/06Pos 7 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 7 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 25%Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 100%2/06Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 33%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 100%25/08Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 100%16/09
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength97%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +11.1%Ahead 3/4
8
2
OR 110
4/1
Granny Hawkins silks

Exors Of The Late Mr G Kennington

7yo Mare · 11-3

Blue Bresil - Arctic Actress (King's Theatre)

Tom Cannon60%0/4A King60%
721113
8.0Going 10.0

Smooth-travelling mare who often goes well fresh. Made it a hat-trick in mares company at Stratford prior to finishing close third back against the boys at Market Rasen in July. Going the right way and should give another good account off 2 lb higher.

Class Advantage

9/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below9/06 · mark par9/0627/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par25/11 · C5 · finish vs mark above25/11 · mark par7/03 · C5 · finish vs mark above7/03 · mark par19/04 · C4 · finish vs mark above19/04 · mark par5/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below5/07 · mark par5/07projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 7f 182y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 7 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 45%9/06Pos 2 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 2 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 91%Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 100%25/11Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%19/04Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 67%5/07
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength89%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +6.8%Ahead 3/4
2
4
OR 121
6/1
Wild Goose silks

Mrs Marion Hudson

6yo Gelding · 12-0

Yeats - Poppy Come Running (Definite Article)

Aamilah Aswat60%1/3−10lbK Bailey & M Nicholls60%
514215
6.0Going 8.0
Tongue strap

Enthusiastic sort chased home a well-treated one at Kempton before resuming progress with a decisive victory at Hereford in April. Had still looked on a potentially handy mark prior to finishing down the field at Warwick the following month. Now needs to get back on the up following 5 months away.

Class Advantage

15/10 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a15/103/12 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/12 · mark par2/02 · C4 · finish vs mark below2/02 · mark par23/03 · C4 · finish vs mark below23/03 · mark par16/04 · C4 · finish vs mark above16/04 · mark par4/05 · C4 · finish vs mark below4/05 · mark par4/05projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 7f 182y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 71%15/10Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 67%2/02Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 86%Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 100%16/04Pos 5 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 5 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 43%4/05
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength58%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -11.9%Ahead 1/4
4
5
OR 117
16/1
Pigeon House silks

New Vision Bloodstock

6yo Gelding · 11-10

Saxon Warrior - Zaitana (Zoffany)

Beau Morgan60%0/1C & A Pogson60%
21P2P4
5.0Class ↓3Going 8.0
Cheek pieces

Made all in a 2m Catterick claiming hurdle on final start for Jennie Candlish. Very much a mixed bag for new connections, benefitting from appreciable drop in class when beaten 8½ lengths in Stratford selling handicap latest. Remains opposable back up in grade.

Class Advantage

28/06 · C6 · finish vs mark below28/06 · mark par28/069/02 · C4 · finish vs mark below9/02 · mark par4/03 · C4 · finish vs mark above4/03 · mark par2/04 · C5 · finish vs mark below2/04 · mark par12/06 · C4 · finish vs mark below12/06 · mark par5/09 · C5 · finish vs mark below5/09 · mark par5/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength21%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 7f 182y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 0%28/06Pos 2 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 86%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%4/03Pos 9 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 9 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 2 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 2 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 67%12/06Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 50%5/09
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength74%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +25.2%Ahead 3/4
6
3
OR 114
8/1
King Ulanda silks

The Happy Monarchs

6yo Gelding · 11-7

Kingston Hill - Ulanda (Le Cadre Noir)

Jack Tudor60%1/2O Greenall & J Guerriero70%
F61413
7.0Going 8.0
1st Cheekpieces +2Tongue strap

As good as ever when making it 2 wins from 3 starts this season on return to hurdling at Uttoxeter (2m) in July. Wasn't in same form when 9 lengths behind Max of Stars at Sedgefield latest. May benefit from return to bigger field/likely stronger pace, though.

Class Advantage

20/12 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/12 · mark par20/124/04 · C4 · finish vs mark below4/04 · mark par16/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above16/05 · mark par13/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below13/06 · mark par15/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above15/07 · mark par9/09 · C4 · finish vs mark below9/09 · mark par9/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 7f 182y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 88%20/12Pos 6 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 6 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 29%Pos 1 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 1 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 100%16/05Pos 4 · SP 16/5 | Expected: 83%Pos 4 · SP 16/5 | Actual: 25%Pos 1 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 1 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 100%15/07Pos 3 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 3 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 0%9/09
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength18%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -14.7%Ahead 2/4
9
8
OR 109
10/1
King Of The Road silks

Rocco's Rebels

7yo Gelding · 11-2

Shirocco - Diamond Gesture (Presenting)

Callum Pritchard60%0/4B Pauling80%
302904
4.0

Split fairly useful pair when career-best second in first-time cheekpieces at Kempton on Boxing Day. Now 4 lb lower and may come on for his latest run following a breathing operation at Warwick in May. Interesting for yard in fine form (6 wins plus 10 placed from just 23 runners since July).

Class Advantage

8/10 · C4 · finish vs mark below8/10 · mark par8/1014/11 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below14/11 · mark par26/12 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above26/12 · mark par15/01 · C4 · finish vs mark below15/01 · mark par27/03 · C4 · finish vs mark below27/03 · mark par20/05 · C4 · finish vs mark below20/05 · mark par20/05projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 7f 182y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 60%8/10Pos 16 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 16 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 12%Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 89%26/12Pos 9 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 9 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 27%Pos 15 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 15 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 7%27/03Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 50%20/05
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength43%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +1.1%Ahead 2/4
7
6
OR 112
8/1
Max Of Stars silks

Mrs S D Pearson & Ollie Pears

6yo Mare · 11-5

Cloth Of Stars - Mooizo (Rock Of Gibraltar)

B S Hughes60%4/16Ollie Pears
13U442
6.0Class ↓3Going 8.0

Enthusiastic front runner who was successful 3 times over hurdles in 2025, including over C&D (1-1). Typically gave it a good go when 1¼-length second of 3 at Sedgefield latest. Capable of a bold bid off an unchanged mark, though likely faces competition for the lead here.

Class Advantage

18/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above18/06 · mark par18/063/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below3/07 · mark par24/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above24/07 · mark par5/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above5/08 · mark par22/08 · C4 · finish vs mark below22/08 · mark par9/09 · C4 · finish vs mark below9/09 · mark par9/09projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength40%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 7f 182y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 91%18/06Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 25%Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 25%24/07Pos 5 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 5 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 25%22/08Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 50%9/09
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 7-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -49.8%Ahead 0/4
1
9
OR 121
16/1
Last Kingdom silks

Mr John P McManus

5yo Gelding · 12-0

Choeur Du Nord - Galatica De Thaix (Rail Link)

R P McLernon60%0/1Faye Bramley
8PP709
3.0Class ↓3

Useful handicapper for Willie Mullins, including listed handicap success at Listowel this time last year. Now on a much-reduced mark having been well below form in first half of 2026 for current yard. Interesting to see if market hints at a revival on first start in Class 4 company.

Class Advantage

25/09 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above25/09 · mark par25/0930/11 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below30/11 · mark par29/12 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below29/12 · mark par23/03 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below23/03 · mark par10/04 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below10/04 · mark par15/05 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below15/05 · mark par15/05projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength44%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 7f 182y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 100%25/09Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 8 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 53%29/12Pos 7 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 14%Pos 19 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 19 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 10%10/04Pos 9 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 11%15/05
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength42%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +22.2%Ahead 4/4
5
7
OR 115
14/1
Bluegrass silks

Mrs Diana Gardiner

7yo Gelding · 11-8

Galileo - Quiet Reflection (Showcasing)

Charlie Hammond60%4/12S Edmunds80%
834487
5.0Class ↓4
1st Blinkers +3Tongue strap

Hit-and-miss performer who returned from a similar absence to land a small-field C&D handicap in October. Subsequent patchy run of form has seen him fall back down the weights, now 2 lb below his winning mark here last season.

Class Advantage

7/12 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below7/12 · mark par7/128/01 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below8/01 · mark par5/02 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below5/02 · mark par13/03 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below13/03 · mark par2/04 · C4 · finish vs mark below2/04 · mark par2/05 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below2/05 · mark par2/05projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength53%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 7f 182y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 8 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 22%7/12Pos 3 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 78%Pos 4 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 4 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 25%5/02Pos 4 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 4 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 40%Pos 8 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 8 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 36%2/04Pos 7 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 7 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 14%2/05
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -35.2%Ahead 0/4