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13:50 · Southwell

Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

3m 60yGoing TBCClass 44YO plusTURFHandicap4 runners
Ordered by projected finish
3
2
OR 105
13/8
Alright Dai silks

Lycett Racing Ltd

Alright Dai

8yo Gelding · 11-6

No Risk At All - The Cookie Jar (Alderbrook)

C O'Farrell60%4/7N P Mulholland70%
9U1133
7.0Going 8.0Class ↓2
Cheek pieces

Won 3m hurdle at Taunton and 19.5f handicap at Fontwell last winter. Ended that campaign with a couple of creditable thirds in March but peak fitness has to be taken on trust after 6 months off.

Class Advantage

25/04 · C5 · finish vs mark below25/04 · mark par25/0431/08 · C4 · finish vs mark below31/08 · mark par11/12 · C5 · finish vs mark above11/12 · mark par11/01 · C5 · finish vs mark above11/01 · mark par10/03 · C4 · finish vs mark below10/03 · mark par27/03 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above27/03 · mark par27/03projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 3m 60y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 7 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 45%25/04Pos 9 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 9 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 27%Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 100%11/12Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 60%10/03Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 71%27/03
Projected finish1st of 4100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength94%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +2.9%Ahead 2/4
4
Top Pick1
OR 101
8/1
No More No silks

Andy Weller

No More No

7yo Gelding · 11-2

Alkaadhem - Dranamol (Beneficial)

David Bass70%2/2Mrs L Hill90%
217116
7.0Going 8.0
Tongue strap1st Visor +2

Defied a 13-month absence on C&D reappearance in June. That took his Southwell record to 3-3 but it was rather laboured and he was struggling a long way out at Newton Abbot 6 weeks later. Has had a breathing operation since. Record here suggests he can bounce back.

Class Advantage

14/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above14/07 · mark par14/073/10 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/10 · mark par17/10 · C5 · finish vs mark below17/10 · mark par12/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above12/05 · mark par9/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above9/06 · mark par19/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below19/07 · mark par19/07projClass-projected finish: 4th of 4
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 3m 60y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 2 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 89%14/07Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 7 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 7 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 40%17/10Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%9/06Pos 6 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 6 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 17%19/07
Projected finish2nd of 467% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength29%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -12.8%Ahead 2/4
2
Market Fav3
OR 112
11/8
Law Of Supply silks

Andrew Lay's Legacy

Law Of Supply

8yo Gelding · 11-13

Mahler - Nina Fontenail (Kaldounevees)

C Gethings0/2K Bailey & M Nicholls70%
43P4F2
6.0Going 8.0
1st Hood +1Tongue strap

Has proven rather in-and-out since winning his first 2 chase starts. One of better recent efforts when second of 5 at Wincanton (25f, good) in April but his yard hasn't had a winner since May and possible he'll need this comeback run.

Class Advantage

22/11 · C4 · finish vs mark above22/11 · mark par22/1112/12 · C4 · finish vs mark below12/12 · mark par1/03 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below1/03 · mark par19/04 · C4 · finish vs mark below19/04 · mark par25/11 · C4 · finish vs mark below25/11 · mark par1/04 · C4 · finish vs mark below1/04 · mark par1/04projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 4
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 3m 60y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 100%22/11Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 75%Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 25%1/03Pos 3 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 3 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 50%25/11Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 75%1/04
Projected finish3rd of 433% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength55%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -38.2%Ahead 1/4
1
4
OR 112
9/2
Paper Mill silks

Mr M Kehoe

Paper Mill

10yo Gelding · 11-13

Schiaparelli - Diva Of Norwich (Norwich)

Charlie Hammond60%1/4S Edmunds60%
431P24
7.0
1st Visor +2

Prolific pointer who opened Rules account at Uttoxeter (3¼m, soft) last November. Good second on 3m return there in July and 23f at Worcester didn't place enough emphasis on stamina for him latest. The extra yardage here will be in his favour. First-time visor replaces cheekpieces. Gets the vote.

Class Advantage

3/05 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a3/052/05 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a14/11 · C4 · finish vs mark below14/11 · mark par27/11 · C4 · finish vs mark above27/11 · mark par7/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below7/07 · mark par4/09 · C4 · finish vs mark below4/09 · mark par4/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 4
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 3m 60y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 6 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 38%3/05Pos 4 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 3 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 3 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 60%14/11Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 80%7/07Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 40%4/09
Projected finish4th of 40% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength49%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -11.6%Ahead 1/4