Crew Dragon

9yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 86

Argentan · Prix De Longchamp Claiming Stakes · 6f 101y

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

33%

Place Prob

41%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength50%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 2

Recent avg: C3.6

Today: 4

Class gap: +0.4

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-20	Fontainebleau	?	3rd	4th	−1	6.4
2026-09-04	Le Lion D'angers	4	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-08-15	Deauville	3	7th	6th	+1	4.2
2026-07-24	Vichy	4	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-07-08	Saint-Cloud	3	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-05-22	Saint-Cloud	3	7th	6th	+1	4.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength30%

Delivery trend -8.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
16/04/2026	11th	33/1	0%	29%	+0.29
27/04/2026	6th	20/1	0%	64%	+0.64
08/05/2026	12th	22/1	0%	27%	+0.27
22/05/2026	7th	10/1	47%	0%	-0.47
08/07/2026	3rd	18/1	5%	67%	+0.61
24/07/2026	2nd	11/2	71%	86%	+0.15
15/08/2026	7th	9/2	76%	33%	-0.43
04/09/2026	5th	10/3	82%	56%	-0.27
20/09/2026	3rd	4/1	79%	71%	-0.08