3
Giorgiana
6yo Mare · 8-13
Argentan · Prix De Longchamp Claiming Stakes · 6f 101y
#2
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
67%
Place Prob
58%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Deauville | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Senonnes-Pouance | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-07-03 | Tarbes | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Le Croise-Laroche | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Le Croise-Laroche | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength29%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 06/10/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 17/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 04/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 17/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 12/06/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 31/07/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 42% | +0.36 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |