4
Rosapenna
4yo Gelding · 8-12
Argentan · Prix De Longchamp Claiming Stakes · 6f 101y
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.9
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Chantilly | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-08-27 | Deauville | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Deauville | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-12-23 | Deauville | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-06 | Chantilly | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-07 | Deauville | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength69%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/03/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 08/04/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 16/10/2025 | 13th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 07/11/2025 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 30% | -0.31 |
| 06/12/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 23/12/2025 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 16/01/2026 | 8th | 15/8 | 90% | 13% | -0.78 |
| 27/08/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 44% | +0.02 |
| 14/09/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |