Aurora Borealis
4yo Gelding · 9-5
Argentan · Prix Elisabeth Mussat Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#7
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Chantilly | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Deauville | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Deauville | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Deauville | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Compiegne | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Deauville | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +11.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/2025 | 13th | 17/2 | 55% | 8% | -0.48 |
| 12/09/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 24/10/2025 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 02/11/2025 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 05/06/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 89% | +0.63 |
| 02/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 27/08/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 64% | +0.59 |
| 14/09/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 92% | +0.66 |