2
Darabjir
7yo Gelding · 10-0
Argentan · Prix Elisabeth Mussat Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#3
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength45%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Vichy | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Deauville | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-01-09 | Pau | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-12-16 | Pau | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Pau | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-18 | Marseille-borely | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength19%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10/2022 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 55% | -0.06 |
| 02/08/2023 | 9th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 15/05/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 18/06/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 13/11/2025 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 16/12/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 09/01/2026 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 69% | -0.24 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 78% | +0.73 |
| 21/09/2026 | 10th | 4/1 | 79% | 31% | -0.48 |