1
Gitano
4yo Gelding · 10-2
Argentan · Prix Elisabeth Mussat Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#11
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength41%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Deauville | 2 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-08-25 | Deauville | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-08-04 | Deauville | 2 | 14th | 12th | +2 |
| 2026-05-30 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Angers | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 2 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 2-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength44%
Delivery trend +5.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 17/09/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 19/01/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 79% | +0.02 |
| 21/02/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 02/05/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 11% | -0.65 |
| 30/05/2026 | 11th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 04/08/2026 | 14th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 92% | +0.27 |
| 01/09/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |