3
Jonin
5yo Filly · 9-10
Argentan · Prix Elisabeth Mussat Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.4
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Compiegne | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Compiegne | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-05 | Chateaubriant | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Chantilly | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Fontainebleau | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Chantilly | 4 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 22/08/2025 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 56% | +0.00 |
| 23/12/2025 | 15th | 16/1 | 16% | 7% | -0.09 |
| 13/02/2026 | 15th | 28/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 06/03/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 02/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 92% | +0.29 |
| 05/05/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 55% | -0.34 |
| 09/06/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 93% | +0.17 |