Liseo
7yo Gelding · 9-9
Argentan · Prix Elisabeth Mussat Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#1
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
86%
Place Prob
55%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-04 | Deauville | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Deauville | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-04-08 | Deauville | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Chantilly | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/12/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 22/01/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 07/02/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |
| 27/02/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 08/04/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 88% | +0.30 |
| 02/06/2026 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 04/07/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 62% | +0.01 |
| 04/08/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 44% | -0.21 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |