11
Shalaa Dancer
5yo Gelding · 9-1
Argentan · Prix Elisabeth Mussat Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Senonnes-Pouance | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | Craon | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Deauville | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Chateaubriant | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Nantes | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength56%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/02/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 18/02/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 10/06/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 01/07/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 21/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 62% | +0.25 |
| 02/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 16/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 87% | +0.26 |
| 19/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |