9
Spring Lily
4yo Filly · 9-4
Argentan · Prix Elisabeth Mussat Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength31%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Dieppe | 3 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Compiegne | 3 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-05-12 | Chantilly | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Deauville | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 85% | +0.19 |
| 29/10/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 15/11/2025 | 13th | 3/1 | 84% | 8% | -0.77 |
| 12/12/2025 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 03/04/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 30/04/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.12 |
| 12/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 93% | +0.46 |
| 09/06/2026 | 12th | 3/1 | 84% | 15% | -0.69 |
| 24/08/2026 | 12th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |