12

Vesco

4yo Gelding · 8-11

Argentan · Prix Elisabeth Mussat Handicap · 1m 1f 97y

#6

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Pornichet 05/02/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR - · 1m99y Std 1275/0244 @ Pornichet 27/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 1m3f204y Std 1274 @ Le Mans 04/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR - · 1m1f152y Hvy 1234/0344 @ Senonnes-Pouance 13/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR - · 1m3f95y Hvy 1324 @ Evreux 15/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 1m208y Sft 13015/044C5 @ Evreux 26/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 1m208y GS 1343 @ Clairefontaine 11/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR - · 7f209y GS 125 · HIGHER CLASS11/0733 @ Deauville 06/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR - · 1m1f97y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Craon 05/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 7f209y Hvy 1455/094projClass-projected finish: 8th of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Craon48th8th0
2026-08-06Deauville39th8th+1
2026-07-11Clairefontaine36th5th+1
2026-05-26Evreux?7th8th−1
2026-04-15Evreux41st1st0
2026-03-13Senonnes-Pouance48th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0213/0311/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength47%

Delivery trend +2.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/02/202612th14/126%21%-0.05
27/02/20262nd18/15%91%+0.86
04/03/202611th14/126%29%+0.02
13/03/20268th11/142%53%+0.11
15/04/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
26/05/20267th33/10%40%+0.40
11/07/20266th50/10%64%+0.64
06/08/20269th50/10%38%+0.38
05/09/20268th25/10%30%+0.30