11
Paddy White Heart
5yo Filly · 8-11
Argentan · Prix Benjamin Boutin Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#11
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.9 /10 (raw 9.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Dieppe | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Deauville | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Deauville | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Chantilly | 3 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2026-04-14 | Chantilly | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Chantilly | 4 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength43%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12/2025 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 30/12/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 19/03/2026 | 13th | 28/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 30/03/2026 | 13th | 80/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 14/04/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 19/06/2026 | 14th | 50/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 06/08/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 16/08/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 17/09/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |