11
Lucky Nonantais
5yo Gelding · 10-4
Auteuil · Prix Cerealiste Handicap Hurdle · 2m 1f 196y
#3
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-08 | Auteuil | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-01-05 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-12-16 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-12-04 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-11-20 | Fontainebleau | ? | 0 | ||
| 2024-10-14 | Fontainebleau | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1586% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength56%
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2024 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 05/10/2024 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 14/10/2024 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 04/12/2024 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 16/12/2024 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 05/01/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 08/03/2025 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |