4
Mr Diafoirus
5yo Gelding · 10-10
Auteuil · Prix Cerealiste Handicap Hurdle · 2m 1f 196y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
26%
Place Prob
31%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Auteuil | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Clairefontaine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Strasbourg | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Auteuil | 1 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-02 | Auteuil | 2 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1593% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +9.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/2025 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 31/07/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 11/09/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/02/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 02/05/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 30% | -0.23 |
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 01/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 82% | +0.13 |
| 17/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 08/09/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 87% | +0.31 |