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2

Nelson Du Mathan

7yo Gelding · 11-4

Auteuil · Prix Recruit Ii Claiming Chase · 2m 2f 86y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼5
Strength86%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.3
Today:
Class gap: +5.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Toulouse 23/10/2024 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 2m3f85y Sft 15723/10C?C0 @ Nantes 09/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 2m5f82y Sft 150C0 @ Nantes 05/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 2m5f82y GS 1505/05C?C0 @ Toulouse 21/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 2m4f193y Hvy 147C0 @ Pau 10/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 2m3f194y Ver 14710/12C?3 @ Angers 12/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 2m2f195y Hvy 156 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Bordeaux Le Bouscat 10/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 2m2f195y Hvy 15210/03C?3 @ Le Lion D'angers 05/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 2m3f85y Hvy 156 · HIGHER CLASS1 @ Le Lion D'angers 14/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 2m6f190y Sft 147 · HIGHER CLASS14/051projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-14Le Lion D'angers15th-3th+7
2026-04-05Le Lion D'angers32nd-3th+5
2026-03-10Bordeaux Le Bouscat?4th4th0
2026-02-12Angers34th-1th+5
2025-12-10Pau?7th7th0
2025-05-21Toulouse?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/1021/0510/0314/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength96%

Delivery trend +5.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/10/20243rd15/890%71%-0.19
09/04/20253rd8/158%71%+0.14
05/05/20255th8/158%50%-0.08
21/05/20256th5/174%38%-0.36
10/12/20257th14/126%14%-0.12
12/02/20264th16/116%73%+0.57
10/03/20264th25/10%50%+0.50
05/04/20262nd13/266%91%+0.25
14/05/20265th9/153%50%-0.03