3
The Must
6yo Gelding · 11-4
Auteuil · Prix Recruit Ii Claiming Chase · 2m 2f 86y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼4
Strength100%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.2
Today:
Class gap: +4.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Auteuil | 1 | 10th | 2nd | +7 |
| 2026-09-08 | Auteuil | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Auteuil | 1 | 8th | 0th | +7 |
| 2026-04-25 | Auteuil | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-13 | Auteuil | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Auteuil | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength75%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 29/12/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 04/01/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 07/03/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 13/04/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 17/05/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 59% | +0.59 |
| 08/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 26/09/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |