IvyArcIvyArc
7

Saint Sonnet

11yo Gelding · 10-10 · OR 130

Auteuil · Prix Vivienne Claiming Hurdle · 2m 1f 196y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

89%

Place Prob

73%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲6
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.9 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C13.4
Today:
Class gap: -5.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Wincanton 26/12/2021 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 132 · 3m150y Sft 152 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/12/2021 · OR 132 par26/122OR 1323 @ Ascot 27/03/2022 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 132 · 2m5f141y Gd 166 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/03/2022 · OR 132 parBHA130 @ Fontainebleau 15/03/2023 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 130 · 2m2f195y Hvy 150 · beat its mark15/03/2023 · OR 130 par15/03130OR 130BHA130 @ Auteuil 18/04/2023 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 130 · 2m3f85y Hvy 152 · below its mark18/04/2023 · OR 130 parBHA139 @ Aix-Les-Bains 30/06/2023 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 139 · 2m5f82y 150 · below its mark30/06/2023 · OR 139 par30/06139OR 139C0 @ Aix-Les-Bains 14/07/2023 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 2m5f82y Sft 158BHA139 @ Craon 03/09/2023 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 139 · 2m4f193y GS 154 · below its mark03/09/2023 · OR 139 par3/09139OR 139BHA130 @ Fontainebleau 25/02/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 130 · 2m2f195y Hvy 150 · below its mark25/02/2025 · OR 130 parBHA130 @ Auteuil 15/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 130 · 2m1f196y Hvy 150 · below its mark15/03/2025 · OR 130 par15/03130OR 130projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-03-15AuteuilBHA1305th12th−6
2025-02-25FontainebleauBHA1308th15th−6
2023-09-03CraonBHA1393rd11th−6
2023-07-14Aix-Les-Bains?1st1st0
2023-06-30Aix-Les-BainsBHA1393rd11th−6
2023-04-18AuteuilBHA1304th11th−6

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/1218/043/0915/03
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength28%

Delivery trend -0.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/12/20212nd9/153%89%+0.36
27/03/20224th7/282%0%-0.82
15/03/20231st17/255%100%+0.45
18/04/20234th5/493%57%-0.36
30/06/20233rd15/890%67%-0.23
14/07/20231st7/491%100%+0.09
03/09/20233rd2/189%67%-0.23
25/02/20258th7/282%0%-0.82
15/03/20255th22/10%50%+0.50