7
Marinello
4yo Gelding · 10-7
Auteuil · Prix Fezensac Chase · 2m 1f 87y
#7
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Moulins | 3 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-02-23 | Auteuil | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-02-03 | Pau | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Pau | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-12-24 | Pau | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-15 | Nantes | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 6-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10/2025 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 17% | -0.39 |
| 16/01/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 03/02/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 23/02/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |
| 18/09/2026 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 40% | -0.47 |