4
Mistral Moriviere
4yo Gelding · 10-10
Auteuil · Prix Fezensac Chase · 2m 1f 87y
#6
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | Pau | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Pau | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Craon | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 6-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -13.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 79% | +0.08 |
| 16/01/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 06/02/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |