5
Motu Kota
4yo Gelding · 10-10
Auteuil · Prix Fezensac Chase · 2m 1f 87y
#11
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength5%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.7
Today: 2
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-23 | Auteuil | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-01 | Auteuil | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-09 | Auteuil | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-05-18 | Auteuil | ? | +1 | ||
| 2025-04-26 | Auteuil | ? | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 9-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 14% | -0.49 |
| 09/09/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 01/10/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 23/02/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 38% | -0.47 |
| 10/03/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |