11
Master Falcon
4yo Gelding · 10-1
Auteuil · Prix Julien Decrion Handicap Chase · 2m 1f 87y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Auteuil | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Clairefontaine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Dieppe | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-22 | Clairefontaine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Auteuil | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Auteuil | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength47%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/12/2025 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 11/03/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 29/03/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 09/04/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 06/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 16/05/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |
| 22/07/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 26/08/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 12/09/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |