3
Toastmaster
4yo Gelding · 10-10
Auteuil · Prix Julien Decrion Handicap Chase · 2m 1f 87y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
86%
Place Prob
62%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Auteuil | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Clairefontaine | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Auteuil | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Auteuil | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-25 | Compiegne | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-04 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 01/12/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 08/12/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 25/12/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 04/01/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 82% | +0.45 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 17/09/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 91% | +0.65 |