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Cromane

2yo Filly · 10-2 · OR 74

Bellewstown · Racing TV Nursery Handicap · 7f 195y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/8

Win Prob

80%

Place Prob

64%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed much improved form upped in trip when making a successful nursery debut in 13-runner event at Naas (1m, good to soft) 14 days ago. Has excellent follow-up claims.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: BHA67
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Cork 19/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 6f Sft 13019/05C8C8 @ Galway 31/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR - · 7f Yie 12531/07C8C8 @ Curragh 16/08/2026 · Pos 15th of 18 · OR - · 6f Goo 12516/08C8BHA67 @ Naas 17/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 67 · 1m Yie 135 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 67 par17/0967OR 67projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17NaasBHA671st1st0
2026-08-16Curragh?15th15th0
2026-07-31Galway?7th7th0
2026-05-19Cork?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0531/0716/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +12.6% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/05/20265th11/271%50%-0.21
31/07/20267th16/116%57%+0.41
16/08/202615th20/10%18%+0.18
17/09/20261st11/271%100%+0.29