4
Scarlet Dream
2yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 66
Bellewstown · Racing TV Nursery Handicap · 7f 195y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: BHA70
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Fairyhouse | BHA70 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Navan | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Naas | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Dundalk | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength59%
Delivery trend -14.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 23/08/2026 | 9th | 150/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 02/09/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 21/09/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |