5
Xirivella
3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 70
Bellewstown · Bellewstown Inn Fillies Maiden · 7f 195y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Punchestown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Navan | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Naas | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Naas | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 15/09/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 69% | +0.32 |