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Nephin Mountain

3yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 58

Bellewstown · Bluegrass Horse Feed Handicap (0-60) · 7f 195y

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

91%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Doubled his tally in a higher grade at Navan (1m) in late-August. Subsequent third there has worked out very well and confirmed himself still in fine heart when 2 lengths fourth at Punchestown (9f) latest. Makes appeal returning to 3-y-o company.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: BHA51
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA52 @ Leopardstown 18/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 52 · 1m1f GF 123 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 52 par18/0652OR 52BHA52 @ Naas 04/07/2026 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR 52 · 1m2f194y Goo 132 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 52 parBHA51 @ Down Royal 17/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 51 · 1m5f Goo 125 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 51 par17/0751OR 51BHA51 @ Ballinrobe 20/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 51 · 1m1f135y Goo 125 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 51 parBHA55 @ Galway 02/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 55 · 1m73y Yie 119 · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 55 par2/0855OR 55BHA54 @ Gowran Park 12/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 54 · 1m1f100y GF 128 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 54 parBHA53 @ Navan 27/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 53 · 1m20y Goo 119 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 53 par27/0853OR 53BHA57 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 21 · OR 57 · 1m2f10y Gd 133 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 57 parBHA58 @ Punchestown 15/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 58 · 1m1f30y Goo 134 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 58 par15/0958OR 58projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15PunchestownBHA584th4th0
2026-09-05NavanBHA573rd3rd0
2026-08-27NavanBHA531st1st0
2026-08-12Gowran ParkBHA545th5th0
2026-08-02GalwayBHA556th6th0
2026-07-20BallinrobeBHA511st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0620/0727/0815/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.5% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/06/20264th5/174%79%+0.05
04/07/202614th10/147%13%-0.34
17/07/20265th18/15%33%+0.28
20/07/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
02/08/20266th16/116%50%+0.34
12/08/20265th10/147%71%+0.24
27/08/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
05/09/20263rd10/147%90%+0.43
15/09/20264th5/174%75%+0.01