6
Spiritofthedawn
3yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 48
Bellewstown · Bluegrass Horse Feed Handicap (0-60) · 7f 195y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 8.4)
Highest class: BHA48
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Punchestown | BHA49 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Navan | BHA48 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Gowran Park | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Curragh | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-06-12 | Leopardstown | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/2025 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 19/04/2026 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 05/05/2026 | 11th | 125/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 02/09/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 15/09/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 54% | +0.12 |