IvyArcIvyArc
7

Stonyfalls

3yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 45

Bellewstown · Bluegrass Horse Feed Handicap (0-60) · 7f 195y

#4

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made more impact than previously when 6 lengths third over C&D on penultimate start. Has been given a break since her subsequent non-staying effort at Killarney (11.5f) and has promising 5-lb apprentice booked for return.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 9.1)

Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 24/08/2025 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR - · 7f Goo 12324/08C8C8 @ Down Royal 05/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 7f27y Gd 122C8 @ Down Royal 29/09/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR - · 7f26y Yie 12029/09C8C8 @ Dundalk 07/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 59 · 7f Std 128 · below its mark07/11/2025 · OR 59 parBHA53 @ Down Royal 29/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 53 · 7f Goo 132 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 53 par29/0553OR 53BHA51 @ Down Royal 19/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 51 · 7f Sft 124 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 51 parBHA49 @ Bellewstown 02/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 49 · 7f211y Gd 129 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 49 par2/0749OR 49BHA47 @ Killarney 13/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 47 · 1m3f73y Gd 127 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 47 par13/0747OR 47projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-13KillarneyBHA4711th11th0
2026-07-02BellewstownBHA493rd3rd0
2026-06-19Down RoyalBHA519th9th0
2026-05-29Down RoyalBHA536th6th0
2025-11-07Dundalk?9th9th0
2025-09-29Down Royal?12th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/087/112/0713/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength57%

Delivery trend +5.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/08/202515th150/10%0%0.00
05/09/20258th300/10%46%+0.46
29/09/202512th125/10%0%0.00
07/11/20259th300/10%27%+0.27
29/05/20266th66/10%62%+0.62
19/06/20269th40/10%20%+0.20
02/07/20263rd25/10%86%+0.86
13/07/202611th28/10%23%+0.23