4
Excuzio Joe
9yo Mare · 9-7 · OR 73
Bellewstown · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 7f 195y
#7
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 7.2)
Highest class: BHA67
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-30 | Galway | BHA78 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-05-13 | Roscommon | BHA79 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2023-11-05 | Curragh | BHA80 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2023-10-22 | Leopardstown | BHA80 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2023-10-16 | Gowran Park | BHA80 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2022-11-29 | Punchestown | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength55%
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2022 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 23% | -0.35 |
| 22/10/2022 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 85% | +0.37 |
| 31/10/2022 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 94% | +0.31 |
| 29/11/2022 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 16/10/2023 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 22/10/2023 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 05/11/2023 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 13/05/2024 | 15th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 30/07/2024 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |